摘要
本文将信息披露质量引入财务预警指标体系中,采用支持向量机(SVM)财务预警模型,研究处于不同生命周期阶段的企业在引入信息披露质量前后财务危机预测准确性的差异,然后利用决策树(DT)模型分析信息披露质量在财务预警体系中的重要程度。实证结果表明,引入信息披露质量的SVM财务预警模型,其准确率在成长期、成熟期和衰退期均有一定的提高,导入期则没有发生变化;对于处于不同生命周期阶段的企业,信息披露质量对财务预警的影响程度具有一定差异:成熟期企业影响程度最大,成长期和衰退期企业影响程度较大,而导入期企业影响效果不明显。因此,合理引导公司信息披露,对于降低上市公司发生财务危机的概率具有重要导向效应。
This study interprets from the perspective of corporation life cycle theory,and establishes a financial warning index system with the quality of information disclosure. Then,it creates the financial warning system by integrating the support vector machines（ SVM） and decision tree（ DT）. It also investigates the differences in the accuracy of financial crisis forecast with or without the introduction of the quality of information disclosure and also studies the importance of the quality of information disclosure in the financial warning system. The empirical results show that the introduction of the quality of information disclosure leads to the improved accuracy in the financial crisis forecast and the impact shows evident difference in different stages of the life cycle. Therefore,rational guide in the corporate information disclosure is of great importance in minimizing the probability of the occurrence of financial crisis.
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第8期122-129,共8页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"战略导入的投资决策与风险管理"(71031004)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目"金融创新与风险管理"(71221001)
关键词
财务预警
企业生命周期
信息披露质量
financial warning
corporation life cycle
quality of information disclosure
