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Sustainable Development Plan Based on Mathematic Model Analysis

Sustainable Development Plan Based on Mathematic Model Analysis
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摘要 Sustainable development has been a global issue, which focuses on balancing human needs with the earth' s health. In this paper, we construct a model to distinguish the sustainability of a country. To evaluate the sustainability of a country, we select eight metrics based on four aspects: Society, Economics, Ecology and Politics. We use BP neural network to obtain the sustainability ranking and use Grey Relational Analysis to calculate the sustainability scores of 187countries. By combining the ranking and the score, we develop a measure to define whether a country is sustainable or not. The critical point is Maldives, which ranks No. 103 and scores 63.65. As one of least developed countries, Uganda ranks No.164 and scores 48.79, according to our measure. Based on Uganda' s society, population, natural resources, etc., we draft a 20-year (2013-2033) sustainable development plan that integrates the social, economic, ecological and political components. The overall goal of the plan is to transform Uganda into a sustainable country and make noticeable progress in the ranking. Furthermore, to analyze changes' influence on our plan, we take climate change as an example. The weights of Environment and Health will be modified by climate change, causing a reduction in the growth rate of sustainability score.
出处 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2015年第7期118-120,共3页 国际技术管理
关键词 Sustainable development BP neural network GRA 20-year sustainable development plan 可持续发展规划 数学模型分析 可持续性
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