摘要
采用趋势性及误差、偏差频率、误差反位相等分析方法,以2011年6月1日~2012年5月31日内蒙古某风电场风机轮毂高度逐小时风速资料为实况数据,对9 km×9 km BJ-RUC风速预报产品的连续变化趋势及误差分布进行了初步评估,发现：（1）预报风速与实况风速在夏季的相关性较差,其余3季预报风速的连续变化趋势性能较好。（2）平均误差在各月均以正为主,即预报风速总体较实况风速偏大,两者存在明显的系统性误差,春夏两季误差大于秋冬两季。（3）随着预报时效的延长,预报性能总体呈下降趋势。
In order to understand the performance of wind speed forecast by BJ-RUC in a wind power farm of Inner Mongolia and provide basis for wind speed forecasting correction on the height of the wind turbine hub,the test of 70 m wind speed forecasting product by BJ-RUC was carried out. The observation data were the hourly wind speed on the height of the wind turbine hub from June 1,2011 to May 31,2012 in the wind farm. The forecasting data were the hourly wind speed forecasting product on the 70 m height by 9 km×9 km BJ-RUC in the corresponding time,the forecasting period was 0-24 h,updating time was 8∶00. The forecasting grid in the test analysis was,located near the center of the wind farm. Because of relatively flat terrain of the wind farm,the forecasting grid could represent the overall situation of wind speed variation in the wind farm. After data reasonableness testing,it was included that the scope test which was 0≤1 h average wind speed on the 70 m height 〈70 m·s-1and trend test had the changes of 1 h average wind speed 〈6 m·s-1,using the analysis methods of trend,deviation,frequency deviation and deviation reverse phase,the forecasting performances of Beijing rapid update cycle of assimilation forecast system（BJ-RUC）to the 70 m wind speed in the wind farm was analyzed in detail. Several test results were consistent to some extent in the trend and error distribution,meanwhile,some differences,incorporate as follows：（1）frequency deviation mainly concentrated in the[-1,3）,the monthly mean forecasting data was larger than the monthly mean observation data,wind speed prediction existed obvious systematic errors,with the changes of seasons,forecast trend and error distribution were not the same,the order of the correlation coefficient from big to small was fall,winter,spring and summer,which of error from small to big was winter,fall,summer and spring;（2）with extension of the forecasting period,the correlation of wind speed prediction and measured wind speed were reduced,and errors increas
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期510-516,共7页
Arid Land Geography
基金
2015年中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目"风机测风资料在风能预报中的应用(CMAGJ2015Z13)"
2012年公益性行业(气象)科研专项"北方大规模风电场风功率预测技术研究及其应用(GYHY201206026)"
关键词
BJ-RUC数值预报
轮毂高度风速
趋势检验
误差分布
风电场
BJ-RUC numerical forecasting
wheel hub height wind speed
trend test
error distribution
wind power farm
