摘要
利用1961—2012年国家气候中心的北极极涡环流指数和云南降水量数据,采用线性拟合、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法,研究其变化趋势,对两者之间的关系进行了分析,结果表明:1从1961—2012年极涡面积(PVA)、强度(PVI)和位置(St)指数都呈下降趋势;PVA和PVI 4个季节都呈显著地下降趋势,St的变化趋势只有夏季下降趋势显著。2云南124个站降水量为显著地减少趋势;分季节来看,除春季是增加趋势外,其余的季节都为下降趋势。3PVA与云南降水量之间的关系以负相关为主,而PVI与云南降水量之间的关系正好相反;前期夏季PVA和PVI对后期云南降水量的影响显著。
Based on the Northern polar vortex index of the National Climate Center and the precipitation in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2012, using the statistical analysis methods such as linear trend, composite analysis, and correlation analysis, the relationship between them is studied. The results show： （1） The polar vortex area （PVA）, intensity （PVI） and position （St） index decreased during the period from 1961 to 2012 ; PVA and PVI in four seasons all had significant downward trends, while the trend of S（t） declined significantly only in summer. （2） A significant downward trend of precipitation at 124 stations in Yunnan Province was found; precipitation exhibited an increasing trend in spring and decreasing trends in the other seasons. （3） The correlation of the precipitation with PVA and in Yunnan Province was mainly characterized by negative value, and that with PVI was the opposite; in the early summer, PVA and PVI had significant effects on the later rainfall in Yunnan Province.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2015年第3期488-496,共9页
Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
北极极涡指数
云南
降水量
变化趋势
合成分析
Northern Polar Vortex Index
precipitation
Yunnan Province
trend
composite analysis
correlation
