摘要
基于GARCH族模型、波动溢出效应模型和Johansen协整检验,实证研究原生铜与再生铜价格之间的相互影响,发现原生铜和再生铜之间存在长期均衡关系和双向引导关系,原生铜价格对再生铜价格的波动溢出效应更强。研究结果表明原生铜与再生铜价格之间的相互影响和价格变动只是某种表象,问题的实质是,以固定资产投资拉动经济增长的发展模式和部分地区对房地产业过度依赖的产业结构的变化等,对中国经济产生根本性的影响。
The empirical study took the group GARCH model, volatility spillover effect model and Johansen co-integration test to test the price interaction between raw copper and renewable copper. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and the hi-directional leading relationship between raw copper and renewable copper. And the raw copper market is in a dominant position. The empirical results of this paper reveal the more complex reasons behind the changes in the appearance of some kind of economic growth and inflation on the impact of China＇s economy. The real problem is fixed investment and stimulates economic changes in the industrial structure of the growth model, excessive reliance on real estate and other fundamental impact on China＇s economy.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第7期57-64,共8页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金项目<我国城市生活垃圾减量化市场管理模式及政策研究>(14BGL095)
教育部人文社会科学青年项目<三峡库区环境区居民传统环境权利剥夺的生态补偿制度研究>(10YJC790250)
