摘要
中间选民理论认为,在选举政治体系中存有一定数量的中间选民,其投票行为相对理性务实,在特定情境下可以决定选举结果。台湾地区的中间选民在其领导人选举中具有举足轻重的影响力。本文在概述中间选民理论的基础上,深入分析了台湾地区中间选民的结构和特征,为预判2016年台湾地区领导人选举提供有益参考。
The median voter theory holds that there exist a certain number of median voters in the system of political elec- tion, whose political behaviors are relatively rational and pragmatic, and they can, in specific contexts, decide the outcome of the election. In fact, the median voters have played a decisive role in the Taiwan leader＇ s election. Based on the summary of the median voter theory, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the structure and characteristics of the median voters in Tai- wan area, which, the writer believes, can provide a useful reference to the accurate forecast of the Taiwan leader＇ s election in 2016.
出处
《台湾研究集刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期40-48,共9页
Taiwan Research Journal
关键词
台湾地区
中间选民
结构
特征
Taiwan, median voters, structure, characteristics
