摘要
国家已确定在2015年和"十三五"期间分步建设纳入规划的172项重大水利工程,为此对172项大型水利工程开工建设的社会经济影响进行定量评价,有助于全面认识水利与国民经济互动关系,准确把握宏观经济发展态势,也是做好水利工作的基本前提和进行重大水事实践的决策依据。多功能的水利工程对经济产生的影响会渗透到社会经济的各个方面,这些影响并不是各种影响的简单叠加,之间存在着此消彼长、相互制约、相互作用的复杂关系。影响所波及的范围也通过国民经济产业链条、区域内外的社会经济联系进行传递。必须从国民经济系统的整体角度出发,全面系统地评价其影响。从影响路径与作用机制入手,运用国家可计算一般均衡模型,对172项重大水利工程建设的经济影响进行评价。评价结果显示对172项重大水利工程建设能够有效拉动投资,促进就业和改善民生,带动相关产业,对稳增长具有积极作用。
Quantitative assessment needs to be made to social and economic impact of 172 key water resources projects which have been included in the plan for construction in 2015 and the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.The assessment is beneficial for getting knowledge on interactive relationships between water resources and national economy, which accurately predict the macro economic development trend, in order to provide a foundation for decision-making of major water affairs. The impact of multi-purpose water project can be penetrated into every aspect of our society and economy, as it is not only overlapped in a simple manner, but inter-constraint and interacted with a complex relationship of shift in turn. The scope of its influence can be transferred through industrial chain of national economy and social and economic relations inside and outside the region. Therefore, a systematic evaluation should be made from the overall respects of national economy.Computable general equilibrium model has been adopted to make assessment to economic impact of 172 key water resources projects, in terms of influential route and function mechanism. The assessment results indicate that these projects can drive relevant industries and play a critical role of stabilize growth by encouraging investment, increasing employment and improving people＇s wellbeing.
出处
《中国水利》
2015年第12期1-4,共4页
China Water Resources
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201073)
人社部留学人员科技活动项目择优资助经费"洪涝损失的全口径评价技术"
关键词
水利工程
社会经济影响
评价
可计算一般均衡
water resources project
social and economic impact
assessment
computable general equilibrium mode
