摘要
通过对原有Event碰撞风险模型的改进研究,建立了交叉航路碰撞风险评估模型。用椭球形碰撞模板代替传统的长方形碰撞模板,并用广义帕累托分布对误差较大的尾部导航数据进行描述,推导出该条件下的碰撞风险计算模型,最后用改进后的Event碰撞风险模型对交叉航路的水平重叠概率进行计算。算例表明:采用广义帕累托分布的椭球体Event碰撞风险模型可行,且对交叉航路的碰撞风险评估比原Event模型更精确。
Through improved research on the original Event collision risk model, a cross route collision risk assessment model is established. Ellipsoid collision template is used instead of traditional rectangular collision template and generalized Pareto distribution is employed to describe the tail navigation data which can produce larger errors. Collision risk calculation model is derived under this condition. Finally the horizontal overlap probability of cross route is calculated by the improved Event collision risk model. Results show that ellipsoid Event collision risk model based on generalized Pareto distribution has higher accuracy than original Event model and meets the current safety level target.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2015年第3期1-4,共4页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71171190)