摘要
在绿色索洛模型的基础上就产业结构变动对二氧化碳排放的影响进行理论分析,提出理论假说:在其他因素不变条件下,工业比重提高导致碳排放增加,由服务业比重提高所致的碳排放增幅小于工业且总体上有利于减少碳排放。利用2000-2012年广东省21市的数据实证分析产业结构变动对碳排放的影响,结果证明了理论假说。由结论引伸出来的政策建议是在工业、交通运输业、建筑业推广低碳技术,继续促进工业向服务业转型,将对外贸易政策与行业的碳排放特点结合起来促进对外贸易结构优化等。
This paper firstly analyzes the impact of industrial structure＇s adjustment on carbon dioxide e- missions theoretically based on the Green Solow Model, and puts forward a hypothesis that, ceteris paribus, the enhancement of the share of industrial output would increase the carbon dioxide emissions, while the in- crease of the share of service output would cause less carbon dioxide emissions than that from industry and may contribute to the overall reduction of carbon emissions ; secondly, it gives a description of the trends of indus- trial structure and carbon emissions in Guangdo 21 cities from 2000 -2012 to study empirically ng province and its 21 cities; thirdly, it uses the panel data of the impact of industrial structure on carbon dioxide emissions, and finds out that both static and dynamic panel data models prove the theoretical hypothesis; finally, it puts forward some suggestions including the application of low carbon technology in sectors such as industry, trans- portation, construction, continue to promote the transformation from industry to service, and that to optimize foreign trade commodity structure by combining foreign trade policies with the characteristic of sectorial carbon emissions.
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期38-53,共16页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"推动经济发达地区产业转型升级的机制与政策研究"(编号:71333007
项目主持人:胡军)
广东省低碳发展专项资金重大基础项目"广东低碳发展战略研究"(项目主持人:张捷)
关键词
产业结构变动
二氧化碳排放
广东
低碳经济转型
绿色索洛模型
industrial structure adjustment
carbon dioxide emissions
Guangdong province
low carbon economic transformation
Green Solow Model
