摘要
财政部长担心的是：在大部分人口尚未接近中等收入状态时老年社会就来了，一个老年社会是否能跨越中等收入陷阱？一向敢言的财政部长楼继伟先生，警告中国在未来的5年或10年有50％以上的可能性会滑入中等收入陷阱，并解释说这是因为中国太快进入老龄化社会而引起的。
The Chinese Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei warned that the possibility of China to fall into a so-called 'Middle Income Trap'' in the next five or ten years might be greater than 50%,due to the country's rapid aging population,In the history,once the national income per capita rises to above USD7,500,it will grow to USD 12,000 in five to eight years.Why docs the 'advantage of late-development' advocated by Justin Yifu Lin disappear abruptly?The U.S.economic development is six times the size of the Chinese economy based on exchange rate.Even calculated with PIT,the gap is still four times.China still has much potential in technology and administration to be used.So Justin Yifu Lin argued that the Chinese economy will grow at medium or high speed in 20 years.But Mr.Lou has seen the other side of the coin:the economic will slow down as the population bonus keeps declining.This is the case in Japan,Korea,and Taiwan province of China.Researchers have found that the slowdown of TFP is related with SOEs' withdraw from competitive sectors.Most of them poured into monopolized industries and took more profits.The competitive sectors' ability to absorb rural labor surpluses kept turning weak.It will be useful to break down the monopoly for China to step out of the 'Middle Income Trap'.
出处
《中国海关》
2015年第6期74-74,14,共1页
