摘要
针对近年来冬季雾霾引发的电力系统污闪事故日渐频繁严重的问题,利用1973年至2012年地面气象观测数据,从冬季采暖耗能排污的角度,结合Mann-Kendall法分析了气候变暖背景下石家庄市冬季采暖日与采暖度日的长时间尺度演化规律,并推算出更加灵活的供暖时限,以期降低由供暖式雾霾引起的污闪事故发生的频率。结果表明,受长时间尺度上气候变化所致冬季增温效应影响,石家庄市采暖日和采暖度日整体呈下降趋势,采暖耗能排污减少,有利于减轻雾霾现象。由于传统上石家庄市统一采用固定120 d时限的供暖制度,而用5日滑动平均法计算石家庄市实际采暖日数和采暖度日数均少于固定时限下的采暖日和采暖度日,因此,对石家庄市而言,如若取消一直沿用的固定采暖初、终日,根据天气条件试行灵活供暖,可能明显降低冬季采暖耗能排污,有助于消解供暖式雾霾,减轻雾霾天气给电力设备带来的不利影响。
Weather observation data of North China from 1973 to 2012 were investigated to analyze long term variation trend of haze related meteorological conditions which arised the frequency of pollution flashover on power system. The Mann-Kendall test was utilized to estimate a more flexible heating policy and reduce the frequency of pollution flashover on power system by analyzing the variation trends and mutation points of haze. It is uncovered that the escalated surface temperature in winter leads to the reduction in heating days and heating degree days （HDD） and the associated reduction in heating demand and the air pollution under the context of climate change. Traditionally, a fixed 120 heating days has been carried out in Shijiazhuang area all the time, however, the actual heating days and HDD calculated by the method of five days moving average put a reduction when compared to the fixed one. Therefore, for Shijiazhuang, the cancel of the traditional fixed heating first day, last day and the implementation of a flexible heating policy can have a notable reduction in heating demand and air pollution as well as a reduction in the pollution flashover on power system caused by heating haze.
出处
《电力建设》
北大核心
2015年第6期119-123,共5页
Electric Power Construction
关键词
采暖需求
供暖式雾霾
污闪
heating demand
heating haze
pollution flashover
