摘要
加快推进中国城镇化进程是十八大提出的重要发展战略,科学揭示城镇化演进规律及趋势,对指导城镇化健康、可持续发展具有重要借鉴意义。依据Northam城镇化发展阶段划分思想,基于Logistic模型,借助SPSS分析软件,采用回归分析方法,对中国城镇化发展前景进行了预测,并对城镇化发展三阶段的特征点进行了探索。结果表明：（1）2020、2030、2040、2050年,中国城镇化率将分别达到57.52%、65.09%、70.53%、74.16%。（2）城镇化发展速度极值点出现在2002~2003年,极值点处发展速度为1.068个百分点·a-1,城镇化水平为40%左右,加速度两个极值点分别出现在1978年、2028年前后,两极值点城镇化发展速度均为0.712个百分点·a-1,城镇化水平分别为16.90%、63.09%。（3）中国城镇化加速发展起始时间点为改革开放初,持续时长为49.32 a,2028年前后发展速度将趋于平缓,加速发展期内年平均时速为0.94个百分点·a-1,由此得到的启示为：中国城镇化发展尚存较大空间,未来积极推进城镇化建设,契合城镇化演进规律;适度控制城镇化发展速度,发展速度以1个百分点·a-1为宜;既要重视城镇化发展速度,更要重视城镇化发展质量。研究结果可为管理层制定城镇化发展规划及政策提供理论参考。
To accelerate the urbanization process in China is an important development strategy proposed in the 18th CPC National Congress, so, revealing the evolution rules of China＇ s urbanization and predicting the devel- opment trend scientifically, has an important guiding significance for management to promote a healthy and sus- tainable development of urbanization in China. According to Northam thoughts that depicted by Logistic model, the course of urbanization by a S-shaped curve could be divided into three stages： the inception phase of slow de- velopment, the acceleration phase of rapid growth and the final phase of gentle development. Until now, Northam＇ s theory has been applied to and validated by many research fellows in studying different countries＇ ur- banization and commonly recognized by the academia. In this paper, based on Northam＇ s theory in urbanization stage division and Logistic model, China＇ s urbanization development prospect is predicted and the feature points of three development stages of China＇ s urbanization are explored by SPSS and nonlinear regress analysis. The re- search results show that the rate of China＇ s urbanization in 2020,2030,2040, and 2050 is about 57.52%, 65.09%, 70.53%, and 74.16%, respectively. And the peak value of urbanization speed appeared between 2002 and 2003, with the speed of 1.068% per year and the urbanization level of about 40%, while the two extreme points of accel- eration separately in 1978 and around 2028, both with the same speed of 0.712% per year and urbanization levels of 16.90% and 63.09% respectively. As we know, the accelerated development of China＇ s urbanization started from the beginning of reform and opening up. It is also shown in this paper that the time of accelerated develop- ment of China＇ s urbanization can continue to 49.32 years that calculated from 1978, with an average speed of 0.94% per year, and then tends to gentle stage nearly 2028. Therefore, It is enlightened in the following aspects： First, there has been exist
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期384-390,共7页
Arid Land Geography
基金
安徽省教育厅自然科学重点研究课题(KJ2014A175)
安徽省社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2014D53)
