摘要
利用深圳市城市气象探测网110个自动站5年每分钟的观测资料,对深圳市短时强降水(20 mm/h)的气候特征进行了系统的分析。在平均200 km2的预报单元上,要定时、定点、定量地预报短时强降水等小概率事件,目前的预报能力是有限的,如果严格按TS标准评分,第1小时的准确率在10%以下。按照TS评分的基本思路,以人口密度为权重,从公众亲历事件的角度,提出一套相对准确率的定量计算方法,按此方法 2013年深圳市全年短时强降水预报质量第1小时的相对预报准确率为41.6%、第2小时为15.2%、第3小时为8.2%,亦即第1小时的预报具有实用价值,第2小时的预报可供参考,第3小时以上的预报有待今后预报系统的不断总结、完善和提高。
Five-year data of 110 automatic weather stations in an observation network of Shenzhen with the temporal frequency of 1 minute are utilized to systematically analyze the climate characteristics of the short-range strong precipitation （20 ram/h） in Shenzhen. According to the basic idea of TS score, with pop- ulation density as the weight and from the angle of public events, a relatively accurate quantitative calcula- tion method is proposed and the calculation results for 2013 are discussed in this paper. For a forecast unit of average area of 200 km2, the current forecasting ability is limited for fixed-time, fixed-point and quantitative prediction of short-range strong rainfall and other events of small probability. If the standard of TS score is strictly followed, the accuracy rate of the first hour is below 10% and below 3% from the second hour up. According to an examination method for forecasting quality given in this paper, in 2003, the accurate rate of short-range strong precipitation forecasting quality in Shenzhen is 41.6% for the 1st hour, 15.2% for the 2nd hour, and 8.2% for the 3rd hour. In other words, the forecast for the 1st hour is practical, that of the 2nd hour can be used as reference and that of the 3rd hour needs perfection and im- provement in the future.
出处
《广东气象》
2015年第2期1-6,共6页
Guangdong Meteorology
