摘要
利用中国东部季风区20个测站1960-2012年气温和降水量的月值数据,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了季风区各区域年平均气温和年降水量的变化趋势、突变现象和周期特征.结果表明1960-2012年季风区各区域均有增温趋势,在20世纪90年代发生突变,东北地区发生突变要早于其他地区,北方地区的增温幅度大于南方,存在4年左右周期,8～16年的准周期,气温的高频变化周期在内陆地区表现更为明显;年降水量在53年里处于波动状态,四川盆地、华北地区和季风区西北部地区降水有减少趋势,长江流域下游降水有增加趋势,其他地区没有明显变化趋势,存在2～4年周期、8～16年左右准周期,降水的低频变化周期在近海地区表现更为明显.
In recent years, the serious consequences of global warming have become a greater concern for the wide international community. The existing research into the eastern China monsoon region has discussed either an area or the whole region and had different emphases. Recently there have been few studies about the periods and abrupt features of different regional climate change in the eastern monsoon region. Base on the linear trend analysis, Mann- Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet, the regional annual average temperature and annual precipitation were analysed by using 20 sites＇ monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1960-2012 in eastern China monsoon region. The results show that the whole region is getting warmer. Abrupt climate changes occurred in 1990＇s and the northeast underwent earlier changes than other areas. The increasing of temperature in the northern area was higher than the southern area. There existed an about-4-year cycle and a 8~12 year quasi-period. High frequency periodic variations of temperature were more obvious in the inland areas. The precipitation in the Sichuan Basin, Northern China and northwest of the monsoon region decreased. PreciPitation in the lower part of the Changjiang river basin showed an increasing trend and other areas did not change significantly. There existed a 2~4 year cycle, and an 8~16 year quasi-period and the low frequency periodic variations of precipitation were more obvious in the offshore areas.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期186-192,201,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家基础科学人才培养基金项目(J1210065)
国家自然科学基金项目(40901056)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LZUJBKY-2013-130)
关键词
中国季风区
年平均气温
年降水量
气候周期
Chinese monsoon region
annual average temperature
annual precipitation
climate cycle
