摘要
随着单独二胎政策的放开,计划生育政策再次引起了人们的关注.为评估生育胎次对中国人口数量的影响,本文建立了关于人口增长的动力学模型.首先,分别对辽宁省和新疆自治区的人口数据进行了拟合,评估了"二胎"政策对两地区人口的影响.其次,对全国人口数据和抚养比进行了拟合和预测.最后,通过参数敏感性分析,评估各因素对总人口增长的影响.
With adjustment of ＂two-child policy＂ that a couple can have a second child, provided that one party of them is the only children, the family planning policy aroused more attention once again. To assess the impact of the number of births on China＇s population, this paper establish a dynamic model about population growth. First of all, this paper applies this model to fit the population data of Liaoning province and Siukiang autonomous region and evaluate the influence of ＂two-child＂ policy on the population of the two regions. Secondly, this model is applied to fit and forecast the population data and the dependency ratio of China. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried to assess the effect of various factors on population growth
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第9期152-159,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(11331009
11171314
11301490
11426208)
2012年高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(优先发展领域)(20121420130001)
2013年山西省回国留学人员重点科研资助项目(2013-3)
关键词
动力学模型
人口增长
生育胎次
计划生育
人口数量
抚养比
population growth
dynamical model
the number of births
the family planning policy
dependency ratio
