摘要
本文首先构建了绿色信贷、节能减排下的工业增长非线性面板门限模型。研究发现:目前的绿色信贷规制措施有利于工业的节能减排增长,符合波特假说,但其比例增加弹性降低。其次运用灰色系统预测了我国到2020年的工业增长路径。结果显示:现有宏观条件下,工业增速下滑是"新常态"。最后针对性的提出了金融进一步支持工业节能减排增长的政策建议。
Firstly,this paper builds the nonlinear panel threshold model on industrial growth under the background of green credit and energy saving and emission reduction. The research finds that: the current regulatory measure on green credit are conductive for industrial growth when energy is saved and emission is reduced,which is in line with Potter hypothesis but the elasticity of proportional rise is reduced. Secondly,this paper predicts the route of Chinese industrial growth till 2020. The results show that: under the current macroconditions,the rapid fall of the industry is 'new normality'. Finally,this paper raises the policy suggestions that finance should further support industrial growth when energy is saved and emission is reduced.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期55-62,126,共8页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"绿色全要素生产率下的环境规制选择研究"(批准号71373101)
国家社科基金项目"全要素生产率下的环境敏感性和中国环境规制实施效果评估研究"(批准号12CJL057)
教育部重点研究基地重大项目"政治体制对经济发展的作用机制研究--基于行政权力与经济权力博弈分析"(批准号13JJD790010)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地自设项目"绿色信贷对节能减排工业增长的面板门限效应研究"(批准号JLUCQE14005)
关键词
绿色信贷
节能减排
工业增长
面板门限
灰色预测
Green Credit
Energy Saving and Emission Reduction
Industrial Growth
Panel Threshold
Grey Prediction
