摘要
为充分了解华中区域中尺度业务数值预报模式更新为WRF后的预报性能,对该模式2013年汛期24 h和48 h的累积降水预报产品,采用TS评分、预报正确率、漏报率、空报率、偏差及ETS评分等统计量对其进行详细评估。结果表明:从日平均降水率分布来看,24 h预报的降水中心位置和强度与实况更接近,48 h预报的范围明显偏大且强度偏强;汛期总体降水检验表明,该模式的降水预报以偏大为主,随着降水量级的增大,TS和ETS评分逐渐减小,且ETS评分逐渐靠近TS评分;逐月降水检验表明,华中区域汛期月晴雨预报正确率与雨日率呈正相关;通过梅雨期WRF与GRAPES_Meso的预报对比检验可见,两个模式均表现出了较好的预报性能。值得指出的是,随着降水量级的增大,WRF模式降水预报优势逐渐显现。总的来说,华中区域中尺度业务数值模式(WRF)的降水预报产品具有一定的参考价值。
The meso-scale numerical weather prediction system in the middle area of China has been updated re-cently with WRF model.In order to evaluate the prediction performance of the updated forecasting system,24 and 48 hours precipitation prediction during the flood season of 2013 were analyzed in terms of TS score,forecast accu-racy rate,missing alarm rate,false alarm rate,bias and ETS score.The results show that for 24 hours forecast,the distribution of daily mean precipitation rate,precipitation intensity and center position are closer to those of obser-vation,while those from the 48 hours forecasts are significantly overestimated.Precipitation verification during the flood season suggests that most precipitation forecasts are overestimated,and TS and ETS scores decrease gradually and ETS score is gradually close to TS score with the increase of precipitation grade.Monthly precipitation verifica-tion suggests that accuracy rate of rainy and shine weather forecast is in a positive correlation with rainy day rate. Verification of forecasts from two models （WRF and GRAPES _Meso）shows that both have good prediction scores.It is worth noting that forecast results by the WRF are getting better with the increase of precipitation grade.In general,precipitation prediction products of this model are of a certain references to the precipitation fore-cast.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2015年第2期1-8,共8页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
水利部公益行业专项(201201063)
国家自然科学基金(41275107
41405106)共同资助
关键词
检验评估
数值模式
降水预报
Verification
Numerical weather prediction model
Precipitation prediction
