摘要
利用球冠谐函数和时间序列分析实现了南极地区电离层预报。首先,通过南极地区的GPS实测数据提取高精度的电离层总电子含量,并建立了极区球冠谐函数模型;然后,对不同时间段形成的模型系数时间序列进行了谱分析得到周期项,利用傅里叶三角级数拟合并预报趋势项;最后,利用时间序列分析理论中的ARMA(p,q)模型对剔除了趋势项的随机信号部分进行预报。结果表明,一天内电离层预报精度在1TECU,三天内在1.5TECU。
Ionospheric TEC prediction in Antarctica is achieved by spherical cap harmonic analysis （SCHA） and time series analysis. GPS measurements from more than 40 continuously operating sta- tions across Antarctica in 2010 are used to extract TEC value along line of sight. And TEC are mod- eled by SCHA, and the instrumental biases are eliminated by calculation with the model coefficients. At last, high precision TEC and SCHA coefficients are obtained. The periodic terms of SCHA coeffi- cients are calculated by the Fourier frequency spectrum analysis for the time series of coefficients formed at different times. The trend terms are fitted and predicted by Trigonometric Fourier series. And random signal, in which the trend term have been removed, is predicted by the ARMA（p, q） model. TEC in Antarctica can be predicted by the predicted SCHA coefficients. The accuracy of pre- diction for 1 day is below 1 TECU, for 3 days below 1.5 TECU.
出处
《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期677-681,共5页
Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41174029
41204028
41231064)
南北极环境综合考察与评估专项资助项目(CHINARE2015-02-02)
国家海洋局极地科学重点实验室开放基金资助项目(KP201201)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助项目(2042014kf0266)~~
关键词
总电子含量
南极
电离层预报
球冠谐函数
时间序列
total electron content
Antarctica
prediction of ionosphere
SCHA
time series
