摘要
本文通过脉冲响应函数计算人民币汇率变化对进口商品价格变化的传递率和人民币汇率变化对出口商品价格变化的传递率。结果表明,人民币汇率变化对进口商品价格变化的不完全传递程度要高于人民汇率变化对出口商品价格变化的不完全传递程度。本文随后构建包含汇率变化对进口商品价格不完全传递特征的动态随机均衡模型,分析了在不同汇率传递率下,美国货币政策冲击对中国产出的影响。研究表明,人民币汇率不完全传递程度越高,美国货币政策冲击对中国通货膨胀率波动、利率波动和产出波动的影响越小。鉴于此,中国需要进一步深化汇率市场改革,逐步扩大人民币汇率的波动区间;加快人民币国际化进程,提高人民币在国际市场上的地位;同时,不断提高国内企业产品在世界市场上的核心竞争力。
In this paper, we employ the impulse response function to calculate the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on import price change and export price change. The results show that the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on import price change is far stronger than the incomplete transfer rate of RMB exchange rate change on export price change. And then, we develop and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（DSGE） model for the Chinese economy. The model includes some features such as sticky prices and wages, incomplete exchange pass-through. The greater the degree of RMB exchange rate incomplete pass-through is, the smaller the impact of foreign monetary policy shocks on fluctuation of inflation rate, interest rate and output is. In view of this, we should further deepen the reform of the foreign exchange market and gradually expand the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range. Accelerating the process of RMB internationalization improves the status of RMB in the international market. At the same time, we should constantly improve the core competitiveness of the domestic enterprise products in the world market.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期37-45,共9页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"完善宏观金融调控体系研究--基于针对性
灵活性和前瞻性的视角"(项目编号:12&ZD046)
国家社会科学基金一般项目"我国流动性结构失衡的宏观经济影响与货币政策选择研究"(项目编号:14BJY187)的资助
关键词
货币政策冲击
汇率不完全传递
脉冲响应
Monetary Policy Shocks
Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through
Impulse Response
