摘要
在"一带一路"新形势下,国与国之间的合作日益频繁,只有港口、商贸、物流的协调发展才会促进经济的繁荣。因此本文将产业聚集效应运用到内陆保税港区的发展研究中,借助系统动力学的方法计算了内陆保税港区人才、技术、资金和物流四方面在未来的变动情况。研究表明:仅凭借保税政策是无法刺激内陆经济发展的,只有内陆物流通道突破瓶颈、实现畅通时,才会更好地吸引外资从而带来内陆港区经济的快速增长。在未来20年内,随着渝新欧铁路的畅通带来的物流成本的下降、物流时间的减少,内陆保税港区将会逐步形成产业集群。
Under the “ One Belt and One Road ” new situation, cooperation between countries become more frequent. Only the coordinated development of port, trade, logistics will promote the economic prosperity. In this paper, the industrial cluster effect will be applied to the research in the development of inland bonded port area. Here we build a model to predict the operational conditions of the inland bonded port area and calculate the future changes in talent, technolo- gy, capital and logistics by using system dynamics method. The results show that only the inland bonded policy is unable to stimulate economic development. If and only if the inland logistics channel break through the bottlenect to be unblocked, it could be better to attract foreign investment in order to bring rapid eco- nomic growth in the inland port area. In the next 20 years, with the Yuxin＇ou （Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe） International Railway to be open, following the de- cline of logistics costs and less time for logistics, the inland bonded port will gradually form industrial clusters.
出处
《特区经济》
2015年第4期12-16,共5页
Special Zone Economy
关键词
一带一路
内陆保税港
产业聚集
系统动力学
One Belt and One Road
Inland bonded port
Industrial Cluster
Systemdynamics
