摘要
鉴于现行危险源评价中针对多项目并行施工危险源的评价方法较少。结合多项目的特点,运用模糊数学理论、马尔科夫理论和可靠性理论,建立了基于可靠性分析的模糊马尔科夫模型,为总项目部进行危险源控制提供了理论依据,减少了其对危险源进行盲目控制,从而也起到节约成本的作用。将此模型运用于某小区建设危险源评价中,计算结果表明,下一时段第一与第四项目部的深基坑护壁强度不够所产生危险的概率比较大,应对基坑进行加固,第二与第三项目部危险源所产生的危险等级概率在可接受范围内,与工程实施中的反馈信息基本一致。
There are rare hazard evaluation methods aiming at the construction hazard of parallel construction in multi-project. In this paper, considering the characteristics of multi-project, a fuzzy Markov model based on reliability analysis was established with the help of fuzzy theory, markov theory and reliability theory. The model provides a theory basis for the hazard control of the project. It will also avoid aimless hazard control of the project, which plays a part in costs saving. This model was used in the hazard evaluation of the construction process of a residential building. Results show that the strength of the protecting wall of the foundation pits of project I and project 4 are not enough in next period, making the hazard probability pretty high. Their foundation pits should be reinforced. Moreover, hazard levels of the project 2 and project 3 are under control, which keep consistent with the feedback during construction.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2015年第2期86-90,共5页
Journal of Engineering Management
基金
住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目计划(2012-R3-17)
关键词
多项目并行施工
可靠性分析
危险源
模糊马尔科夫
multi project parallel construction
reliability analysis
dangerous hazards
fuzzy-markov
