摘要
针对梧州市地质环境条件、地质灾害发育情况,选取地貌类型、坡度、河水侧蚀、地层岩性、残坡积层厚度、断裂发育情况、年降雨量、道路工程活动和建筑工程活动9个因子作为滑坡地质灾害危险性评估指标;选取人口密度、土地资源、交通设施、房屋及其附属价值和抗灾能力5个因子作为承灾体易损性评估指标,通过地理信息系统空间分析技术和粗糙集理论,划分研究区评估单元,构建滑坡地质灾害危险性与承灾体易损性评估知识表达系统和决策表,实现决策表的优化和各指标权重的计算。给合地质灾害风险评估模型,将研究区滑坡地质灾害风险性分为极高风险、高风险、中风险和低风险区,其中,极高风险区约占研究区总面积的6.44%,主要沿傍山而建的城镇和切坡坡度、坡高较大的交通干线分布。研究结果表明,粗糙集与GIS的组合方法能合理可靠地评估滑坡地质灾害风险性,对类似地区的滑坡地质灾害风险评估具有借鉴意义。
According to geological environment conditions and development of geological disasters in Wuzhou city,nine indicators,are chosen for risk assessment of landslides geological disasters,as landform type,slope,river side erosion,formation lithology,eluvial layer thickness,fracture development,annual rainfall,road engineering activities and construction activities.In vulnerability assessment on disaster bearing bodies,five indicators as population density,land resources,traffic facilities,value of housing and its ancillary and disaster reduction capabilities are selected.By means of GIS spatial analysis technology and rough set theory,the study area is divided into evaluation unit,the knowledge representation system and decision table of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment are constructed,and then the decision table is optimized and the weight of each index is calculated.Combined with the model for risk assessment of landslides geological disasters,the risk of geological disasters is divided into extremely high risk,high risk,middle risk and low risk.Among which,extremely high risk area accounts for about 6.44%,mainly along the towns built at the side of the mountain and traffic arteries with larger and higher slope.The results show that,the combination method of rough sets and GIS can reliably evaluate the risk of geological disasters; it has reference significance for geological disasters risk assessment in similar area.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2015年第2期108-114,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
广西自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFAA019287)
国家自然科学基金(41461116)
