摘要
货币国际化在给发行国带来利益的同时也会对该国的宏观经济产生影响。文章以日元为研究对象，利用1960～2011年季度数据，运用扣除本地需求法估算出1986～2011年日元境外流通规模，并以此作为衡量日元国际化的指标，基于SVAR模型实证分析了日元国际化对日本宏观经济的影响。实证表明，日元国际化促进了日元升值；日元国际化使日本市场利率一直维持在较低水平，并且使日本被动实行宽松的货币政策；日元国际化初始阶段有促进物价上升的趋势，但之后物价又迅速下降。在日元国际化进程中，日元升值传递的一系列经济效应在一定程度上助长了日本的经济泡沫，泡沫的破灭使日本经济走入衰退。
Currency Internationalization brings issuing country benefits but also impact on its macroeconomy.This paper uses quarterly data from 1960 to 2011 and adopts an approach of elimination of local demand to estimate the scale of yen circulating outside Japan as an indicator measuring the internationalization of yen.Based on SVAR model,we have analyzed empirically the impact of yen internationalization on domestic economy.The results show: yen internationalization promotes the appreciation of yen; yen internationalization makes market interest rates in Japan remain at a low level,and the authorities have been loosing up its monetary policy in a passivemanner; it causes the price up in Japan initially,and then there is a rapid downward trend in price.In the process of yen internationalization,economic effects of yen appreciation result in economic bubble in Japan to some extent,and bursting of the bubble brings the economy of Japan into recession.The empirical study of yen internationalization provides some experiences for RMB internationalization.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期44-52,128,共9页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"人民币国际化对中国经济内外均衡动态影响研究"(项目编号:11CJL035)
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目"人民币跨境流通的宏观经济效应研究"(项目编号:2012M520792)
