摘要
为了减少企业安全管理者在生产作业中由于不确定性导致错误决策所产生的风险,在企业历年安全生产事故数据基础上进行预测具有一定的现实意义。以某企业2008年至2011年的安全生产事故次数时序数据,采用EViews 5统计分析软件,基于ARIMA时间序列预测模型更加关注对事故发生是否平稳而相对于其他预测模型更关注于趋势研究的良好特点,建立安全生产事故ARIMA时序预测模型,并对2012年的安全生产事故发生次数进行预测,通过效果检验发现该模型预测结果基本上能够反映该企业安全生产事故发生的实际情况。通过ARIMA方法在某企业安全生产事故预测具体案例的实现,是对现有安全生产事故预测方法的补充和完善,可为企业安全管理和决策提供一定的指导。
In order to reduce the risks produced from wrong decisions-making of managers due to the uncertainty in the manufacturing operations,the prediction based on data from production safety accidents of enterprise over the years is certainly significant. Taking the number of production safety accidents of a firm from 2008 to 2011 as timing data and using statistical analysis software of EViews 5,ARIMA time series forecasting model of production safety accidents is established on the basis of its good characteristics that it pays greater attention to whether the accident is stable and compared to other predictive model,it is more focused on trends in research. Furthermore,the number of production safety accidents in 2012 has been predicted and the effect test reveals that the predicted results can basically reflect the production safety accident happened. The realization of specific cases of production safety accident prediction in a company by ARIMA method can supplement and improve the existing prediction methods of production safety accidents as well as provide some guidance for enterprise safety management and decision-making.
出处
《工业安全与环保》
北大核心
2015年第3期78-80,102,共4页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
