摘要
针对恐怖袭击引发危险品运输事故人员疏散的特性,构建了危险品运输事故人员疏散范围模型。在恐怖袭击条件下,以瞬时泄漏高斯扩散模型、蒸气云爆炸模型、BLEVE火球动态计算模型作为不同事故场景后果评价模型,考虑恐怖袭击特性,引入恐慌系数对模型进行修正,并提出不同危害等级对应恐慌系数的度量方法,继而构建恐怖袭击下危险品运输事故的人员疏散范围模型。实例计算结果表明,所建模型合理可行,泄漏事故的人员疏散范围近似椭圆状,其影响范围近似气球剖面,且随与事故中心距离增加而扩大。垂直于下风向的横向扩散距离先增大后减小。爆炸事故和火灾事故人员疏散范围呈圆形分布,爆炸冲击波超压和火灾热辐射剂量与到事故中心的距离呈幂律递减规律。对比分析发现,恐怖袭击条件下的人员疏散范围比常规条件下的人员疏散范围大,并且疏散修正面积随与事故点距离增加而减小。
The purpose of this paper is to propose a method for evaluating the evacuation scope of hazardous material transportation accidents in case of terrorist attack. For this purpose,we have established an evacuation scope model in different accident scenarios in case of being attacked. As compared with ordinary situations,the main difference under a terrorist attack lies in that it comes about in a much more unexpected and greatly shocked situation which is likely to lead to psychological panic. In facing such psychological panic situations,we would like to introduce a panic coefficient for bettering the evacuation scope model along with the instantaneous leak Gaussian diffusion model,the vapor cloud explosion model and BLEVE fireball dynamic calculation model.Then the key problem is how to work out a panic coefficient. A careful analysis may help us to make clear the panic impact on the human psychology and its relation with the distance under trouble. In fact,the panic coefficient we would like to propose is mainly dependent on the damage degree of the seriousness of the accident scenarios. After repeated simulations,we have found that the evacuation scope turn out to be approximately in a balloon with the time increasing in the leakage accident. Furthermore,the lateral diffusion distance perpendicular to the wind direction tends to increase first and then decrease,for the influence of the wind speed,the diffusion distance of the leakage gas in the wind direction,is likely to be much greater than in the other directions. Thus,the evacuation scope of explosion and fire tends to be in a round form. Further analysis may let us see that the blast overpressure and the thermal radiation dose may appear in a diminishing relation with the distance to the accident epicenter. The analysis results of ours reveal that the leakage can be the greatest potential scope of evacuation,in which the likeliness of the evacuation scope of explosion and fire may seem to be smaller,with no noticeable difference between them. A comparative
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期176-182,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71173177)
关键词
安全工程
恐怖袭击
危险品运输
疏散范围
泄漏
爆炸
火灾
safety engineering
terrorist attack
hazardous material transportation
evacuation scope
leakage
explosion
fire
