摘要
基于现有研究,提出一种两阶段法道路工程前期社会稳定风险预评估方法。阶段一为风险因素初筛,通过资料收集、问卷调研、实证调查进行风险因素初筛,获得风险因素初始库。阶段二为风险因素精细化分析,梳理道路工程建设项目可研、规划、设计、实施、运营、后评估全周期流程的风险因素;融入层次分析法分层量化识别道路工程建设全周期的风险要素,根据风险矩阵判定风险等级水平;排序风险水平以给出风险防控的措施建议。最后选取北京市某道路工程建设项目进行案例分析,验证方法的可行性和有效性。
Based on the current research,a two stage method for the risk evaluation of social stabilization from roadway construction is proposed. The first stage is rough screening of risk factors. The initial risk factor database is acquired through the approaches of reference collecting,questionnaire and empirical investigation. The second stage is refinery analysis of quantified risk factors. In this stage,the risk factors from the whole period of engineering feasibility,planning,design,implementation,operation and postevaluation for roadway construction are summarized. Then,the holistic risk factors are quantified through the analytic hierarchy process method. Also the risk levels are defined according to the risk judgment matrix and ranked for the targeted actions of risk control. A case study of a certain roadway construction in Beijing is illustrated to explain the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
出处
《公路工程》
北大核心
2015年第1期9-13,共5页
Highway Engineering
基金
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2013M530639)
关键词
道路工程
社会稳定风险
预评估
两阶段法
全周期
roadway construction
social stabilization risk
pre-analysis
two-stage method
holistic period
