摘要
本文通过对马延坡边坡表面变形、内部变形的长期监测成果分析,结合灰色系统理论,建立了DGM(2,1)预测模型,对马延坡边坡Ⅱ区变形进行了预测。研究结果表明该边坡位移变形大致分为快速增加、缓慢增加、逐渐趋稳三个阶段,位移变形随时间增加而增大、随深度增加而减小,位移变化速率、变化加速度随时间增加而减小。检验结果表明预测模型精度较高,预测结果与实测数据得出的规律较为一致,可为类似的工程提供一些有益的参考。
By analyzing the long-term monitoring results of the surface deformation and internal deformation at Mayanpo slope, combining gray system theory, the DGM （2, 1） prediction model has been established to predict the deformation of slope zone H of Mayanpo. The results show that the slope deformation is roughly divided into three stages： rapidly increasing stage, slowly increasing stage and gradually stabilizing stage and that the deformation will increase with time, but decrease with depth and the changing rate and acceleration of the displacement decrease with time. The test results show high accuracy of the prediction model, and the predictions results are relatively consistent with the measured data, which can provide reference for similar projects.
出处
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》
2014年第3期270-275,281,共7页
Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB036405)
