摘要
使用常规天气资料、云图、雷达、自动气象站、再分析资料等,采用物理描述、统计和对比分析以及中尺度分析方法,对2000年以来对江西北部造成高影响的3个台风进行分析,结果表明:1)江西北路台风都为西北行路径,未经台湾阻挡,登陆点位置在27°N或以北;2)东风或东北风急流为江西北路台风的主要水汽通道,当台风环流中东北风加强或东风急流转为东北风急流时,降水将迅速加强;3)过程总雨量与台风的影响时间成正比,台风未与西风带系统结合时,6 h降水极值出现在台风停止编号3-9 h前,台风与高空槽结合时,出现在结后后;4)台风云系中迅速发展的小块对流云团、水汽图上的迅速南移的水汽回流边界,台风云系受高空槽影响产生形变,都预示着强降水的开始或进一步加强;5)总结了北路台风强降雨区的预报着眼点和预报模型。
By using the conventional observation data,satellite infrared images,radar echoes,AWS data and FNL 1° × 1° reanalysis data,three typhoons which strongly affected north Jiangxi since2 000 were analyzed. The results show that: 1) Three north path typhoons were western way and didn't cross Taiwan,the landing location were 27° N or north than 27° N. 2) Northeasterly jet is the main water vapor channel of the Jiangxi north path typhoon. Rainfall increased when the northeasterly jet increased or the easterly jet turned into northeasterly jet. 3) The total rainfall is proportional to the duration of typhoon. Extremes of six hour precipitation arose 3-9 h ours before typhoon blow class 6if there is westerly system join with typhoon,or arose after westerly system join with typhoon. 4) The small convective clusters developing rapidly in typhoon and the water vapor circumfluence boundary rapidly moving south,typhoon cloud shape change,heralds the heavy rainfall begin or strength. 5)The foundation of forecasting heavy rainfall area and the forecast model of the north path typhoon is summarized.
出处
《江西科学》
2015年第1期41-47,共7页
Jiangxi Science
基金
2013年中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2013-037)
关键词
台风
强降水
东北风急流
降水极值
预报模型
typhoon
heavy rainfall
northeasterly jet
extreme precipitation
forecast model