摘要
2000年以后,在社会主义市场经济条件下,四川学前教育的发展已步入新的历程.数据显示,2002—2013年四川省幼儿在园人数的增长表现为一种"S"形,因此建立相应的Boltzmann模型.用该模型对2020年前的四川省幼儿在园人数进行预测.预测结果比《四川省中长期教育改革与发展规划纲要(2010—2020)》设定的目标值略高,说明规划纲要存在微调的可能性.
Since 2000, with the development of socialist market economy, preschool educa- tion in Sichuan Province has entered a new historical phase. Based on statistical data, the growth tendency chart concerning the number of children in the Kindergartens during 2002 -2013 has shown an ＂S＂ - shaped growth. In this study, Boltzmann model is adopted to predict the number of children in the Kindergartens of Sichuan Province during 2014 - 2020. The data of the out- come indicates a slightly higher value than the predicted value set in ＂Long-term Education Re- form and Development Plan in Sichuan Province （2010-2020） ＂. The possibility of a fine ad- justmet of the plan is therefore indicated.
出处
《西安文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
2015年第1期102-104,共3页
Journal of Xi’an University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
绵阳市职业教育研究中心重点项目"城市化进程与学前教育均衡发展"(MYYZ201204)
