摘要
为了给当地政府、农业部门、农户提供准确及时的玉米发育期预报,根据玉米日平均气温稳定通过10℃播种的温度指标,通过分析辽阳市1956—2010年日平均气温稳定通过10℃与5℃初日间隔日数和稳定通过5℃初日的相关性,利用日序与间隔日数建立回归方程,预测日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日,在此基础上做出玉米播种期预报;利用灯塔市农业气象观测站1981—2010年资料,分析玉米从播种到成熟各个发育期发育速度与气象条件的关系,经过对各时段的相关性检验,发现玉米从播种到成熟期间各发育期间隔日数与≥10℃活动积温相关性最好,从出苗到成熟玉米感温性、感光性都比较强,由此建立播种-开花及拔节-成熟的天数预报模型,预报玉米开花及成熟期。经检验,3款预报模型相关系数、复相关系数及F值均达0.01显著水平,回代与实况值有着比较一致的变化趋势,回代和预报绝对误差（ABSE）和标准误差（RMSE）在2.0~4.3天,可以满足农业气象服务需要,具有推广应用价值。
The paper aims to provide meteorological forecast of development period of maize accurately and timely for local governments, agricultural sector and farmers. According to the temperature index of maize which sowed when daily average temperature through 10℃ steadily, and analysis of the interval number correla- tion in 1 of the average daily temperature through 10℃ and 5℃ steadily and through 5℃ steadily in Liaoyang city 956-2010, the regression equation was established by day series and interval number to predict the begin- ning day of the average daily temperature through 10℃ steadily. Based on the regression equation, sowing time was forecasted. By using the data of agricultural meteorological observatory in Dengta in 1981-2010, the relation of development speed of each period and weather conditions from sowing to maturity stage was ana- lyzed. After inspection of the correlation for each period, the authors found that the correlation of alternate day number of development period and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ was the best. Temperature sus- ceptibility and photosensitive were strong from emergence to maturity, thereby the forecast model of sowing to flowering and jointing to maturation could be established to forecast flowering and maturation of maize. After inspection, it is found that the correlation coefficient, multiple correlation coefficient and F value of these fore- cast model all reach a significant level of 0.01, the variation trend of back substitution and actual value is consistent comparatively, the absolute error （ABSE） and the standard error （RMSE） range between 2.0 and 4.3 days, which can meet the needs of agricultural meteorological operation and services and have the populariza- tion and application value.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第3期199-204,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
辽阳市气象局"玉米发育期预报方法研究"(201402)
关键词
玉米
播种
开花
成熟
预报
maize
sowing
flowering
maturation
forecast
