摘要
目的全面了解上海市卫生人力资源现状,分析目前存在的问题;对本市卫生人力需求进行目标年的预测,为本市打造亚洲一流医学中心城市建设目标提供依据。方法通过描述性分析及目标差距法研究上海市卫生人力资源现状;通过灰色模型GM(1,1)对卫生人力进行趋势分析。结果 (1)多项卫生人力关键指标已达到上海市卫生人才发展"十二五"规划目标;(2)卫生人力资源地区分布不平衡,与地区人口不相匹配;(3)卫生人力资源医疗机构间分布不均衡导致医生担负差别明显;(4)卫生人力资源科室间分布不均衡也是一个突出问题。(5)根据灰色模型GM(1,1)研究,预计2015年上海市卫生技术人员量将达到16.99万人,2020年卫生人员数将达到21.38万人。
Objective To study the status and analyze the main problem of health manpower resource（HMP） in Shanghai; to explore the demand forecasting model of health manpower resource for predicting demand of target year in Shanghai for the goal of making Shanghai being a fi rst-class medical center in Asia. Methods By descriptive study and distance to expected value to study the status of health manpower resource in Shanghai; and using gay model GM（1,1） to analyze the tendency of health manpower. Result Many key index for health manpower have reach the goal on health talent development of Twelfth Five-Year Guideline; The distribution of HMP in Shanghai is difference, and not match to the population in the region; The imbalance on HMP between medical institution have made the signifi cant difference on the burden of doctor; There is also an outstanding problem which the imbalance on HMP distribution exist among different divisions. According to gay model GM（1,1）, the quantity of medical technical personnel in Shanghai will up to 169.9 thousands in 2015, and by 2020, the quantity will be 213.8 thousands.
出处
《中国卫生信息管理杂志》
2014年第6期613-618,623,共7页
Chinese Journal of Health Informatics and Management
关键词
卫生人力
现状研究
趋势分析
需求预测
Health manpower
Cross sectional study
Tendency analysis
Demand forecast
