摘要
工程项目工期在建设过程中会受到单个或者多个风险因素的影响,当前对其研究视角多数局限于某一具体方面,这样得出风险对工期影响的结论存在较大的局限性。鉴于此,文章从参与主体(建设单位、工程承包方、监理单位)、工程物资(资金、人力、物资)及不可抗力因素(自然灾害和社会事件)三个方面分析了项目工期的风险影响。将贝叶斯网络引入到项目工期风险因素当中,阐述了贝叶斯网络图的构建过程。在贝叶斯网络图的理念下,引入非叠加性原理,探讨多个风险因素共同作用的影响。最后以成都市地铁7号线为实例,利用贝叶斯网络图计算出工期风险的非叠加性影响,该计算结果与实际情况基本一致。
The schedule of project is affected by single or multiple risk factors during the construction period and present research confines to a specific aspect, the conclusions of the impact to the schedule has greater limitations. In view of this, the article analysis the risks affecting of project schedule from the participating subject （construction unit, contractors and supervision units）, construction materials（financial, human and material）and force majeure（natural disastrs and social events）. Then the Bayesian network is introduced to the project schedule risk factors which explain the process of building a Bayesian network diagram. In the Bayesian network diagram concept and introduction non-additivity principle, this paper studies the impact from the interaction of multiple risk factors. Finally it uses Bayesian network diagrams to calculated risk of non-additive based on Chengdu Metro Line 7 as an example and result consistent with the actual situation.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期3-7,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
住房城乡建设部科学技术计划资助项目(2013-R1-4)
四川省高校重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(szjj2012-033)
