摘要
针对重庆东水门长江大桥桥塔上部应变长期监测数据,采用ARMA技术对其进行建模处理并预测其未来发展趋势。试验结果显示,采用ARMA方法对应变量向后外推5步的预测误差小于6%。预测结果在工程应用中具有一定的参考价值,为桥梁结构的安全预警提供了可靠的科学依据。
Aiming at long-term monitoring data on upper strain of tower of Chongqing Dongshuimen Yangtze River Bridge, this paper establishes its model and predicts its development tendency in the future by means of ARMA technique. Test results show that the error of prediction by pushing strain 5 steps backward by means of ARMA method is less than 6%. The prediction results exhibit certain reference values in project application and provide reliable scientific bases for safety alert of bridge structures.
出处
《公路交通技术》
2014年第6期95-96,102,共3页
Technology of Highway and Transport
基金
重庆市应用开发(重大)项目(cstc2013yykf C30001)
交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目(2013-364-740-600)
重庆市科技人才培养计划资助项目(cstc2013kjrc-qnrc30001)
关键词
东水门大桥
ARMA
预测
桥梁监测
Dongshuimen Bridge
ARMA
prediction
bridge monitoring
