摘要
在综合考虑影响种植业劳动力需求因素下,建立了一种种植业机械化程度与劳动力需求的关系模型,从而为进一步估算出种植业剩余劳动力提供了一种新方法,它是科学估算种植业劳动力数量和农村剩余劳动力数量的基础,同时探讨了机械化程度为和机械化程度为100%时劳均可负担耕地面积指标的获取问题,最后,在对哈尔滨市种植业劳动力需求进行预测时,采用专家预测法预测了耕地面积,采用基于粗糙集组合预测方法预测了农业综合机械化程度,结果表明,种植业劳动力需求量在不断减少.
Considering comprehensively the factors that affecting the demand for planting labor , this paper establishment a relationship model between the degree of mechanization and labor demand, thus providing a new approach to further estimate the planting surplus labor , which is a basis for scientific estimate of planting labor force and the number of rural surplus labor ,the issues of getting the indicators of the arable land the labor can be burdened when the mechanization degree is 0 and 100% is also discussed. Finally, this paper foretasted the farming labor demand in Harbin, using experts prediction method predict the arable land ,using the combination forecasting method based on rough sets to predict the degree of agricultural mechanization integrated , the results indicated that the demand for labor in farming continues to decline.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第1期63-71,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
种植业
劳动力需求
机械化程度
估算
预测
planting
labor demand
degree of mechanization
estimate
forecast
