摘要
基于运行可靠性理论和多属性决策理论,综合考虑当前系统运行状态和线路重要程度的基础上,提出了一种反映电网状态变化和结构变化的连锁故障预测方法。此方法引入考虑了外界环境因素的线路综合停运概率模型确定线路故障概率,并结合线路结构重要度构建了连锁故障综合预测指标。采用离差最大化的灰色关联度算法综合考虑线路结构重要度。通过对IEEE30系统仿真,搜索出了较严重的连锁故障模式,验证了该方法的有效性。
In consideration- of current system operation state and, line=, importance, level, a method, of forecasting.; casca- ding failures to reflect variation of system operation state and system： structure is proposed; based on operational risk theory and multi - attribute decision theory. This method takes into account the failure probability mode] of transmis- sion lines in external, environment to calculate the. possibility of line. fault, which is combined with line structure impor- tance index to build a comprehensive prediction index of cascading failure. Grey correlation theorn with. maximum, de- viation is used to distinguish the importance, level of line structure. The simulation analysis on the. IEEE 30 bus test system figures out the relatively serious cascading, failure modes, and meanwhile proves out the validity and. rationality of the method.
出处
《电测与仪表》
北大核心
2015年第1期47-52,共6页
Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation
关键词
运行可靠性
多属性决策
结构重要度
连锁故障预测
operational reliability, multiple attribute decision making, structural importance,, cascading~ failure fore,casting
