摘要
2014年,我国经济总体上保持了稳增长、低通胀的良好局面,预计全年GDP增速为7.4%左右,CPI增速在2.1%左右。展望2015年,我国经济增长仍将面临着很多不确定性,经济增速将进一步减缓。但我国经济长期增长的主要动力依然强劲,深化改革的政策红利将逐步释放,2015年我国经济增速不会出现大幅度下滑。预计2015年GDP增速将呈现前低后高的走势,年度GDP增速约为7.2%;通货膨胀压力降低,CPI逐渐走低,全年CPI涨幅在1.3%左右。从三大需求看,2015年进出口增速将有所回升,出口额同比增长约6.3%,进口额同比增长约5.5%,贸易顺差也将增加;消费将保持平稳增长,预计2015年社会消费品零售总额增速在11%左右,与2014年相比略有下降;投资增速稳中略降,预计2015年固定资产投资增速在15%左右,和2014年相比降低约0.8个百分点。三大需求之中,消费对我国经济增长的贡献将有所扩大,中国经济结构将有所改善。
In 2014, China＇ s economy has been at a relatively sound state with stable growth and low inflation. We expect that the GDP growth rate would be about 7.4% and CPI would be about 2.1% for 2014. There are a lot of uncertainties for China＇ s economy in 2015, and the economic growth will further slow down. Nevertheless, the long-term driving force for China＇ s economy is still strong, and the policy benefit of deepening reform will appear gradually. Therefore, there will not be a big slowdown for 2015. We predict that China＇ s economic growth in 2015 will go low at the first half year and will go up at the second half year, and the yearly growth rate will be around 7.2%. CPI in 2015 will keep on going down, and the yearly CPI will be around 1.3%. The foreign trade will be improved, and the growth rates of exports and imports might be around 6.3% and 5.5% respectively. The balance of foreign trade in 2015 will increase slightly. The consumptions in 2015 will keep a relatively stable pace with the growth rate about 11%, slightly lower than that in 2014. The growth rate of investment might be around 15%, 0.8% lower than that of 2014. The consumption contribution to GDP will be enlarged, which improves China＇ s economic structure.
出处
《中国科学院院刊》
CSCD
2015年第1期1-7,共7页
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71431008)
关键词
GDP增速
物价
投资
消费
进出口
预测
GDP growth, CPI, investment, consumption, imports and exports, forecast
