摘要
地铁隧道施工是一个动态过程,针对在地铁隧道施工过程中经常发生的盾构刀盘失效风险分析宜采用动态评价方法。为了获得盾构刀盘失效的可能性并找到刀盘失效的关键致险因素,本文结合地铁隧道施工过程,建立动态故障树评价模型。然后将评价模型模块化成静态子树和动态子树以简化计算过程,并采用贝叶斯和离散贝叶斯分别对它们进行分析;在此基础上,预测出盾构刀盘在不同时段失效的可能性,并进行敏感性分析确定关键影响因素;最后通过工程实例验证了动态故障树在盾构刀盘失效风险分析中的实用性。
Metro tunneling is a dynamic process, and it is suitable to adopt dynamic evaluation method to analyze shield cutter head failure risk in metro tunneling. In order to gain cutter head failure probability and key risk factors, this paper adopts Dynamic Fault Tree （ DFT） to build risk decision model. Then the model is modularized into independent static sub-trees and dynamic sub-trees, Bayesian and Discrete Bayesian algorithm are applied to progress them respectively. On the basis, cutter head failure probability in different time is predicted. Sensitivity analysis is performed to decide key risk factors. At last, project case demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method.
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
2014年第4期60-66,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金(51378235)
武汉市建委科技项目(201208
201334)
