摘要
利用近32年来洞庭湖流域30个气象站点1982—2013年的气温和降水数据,采用趋势分析法、MannKendall检验法和Morlet小波分析法对气温和降水量的年变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）时间上,1982—2013年,洞庭湖流域内年平均气温变化在15.6~17.7℃之间,年均温呈现显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为以0.38℃/10年;年降水量在975.2~1 833.6 mm之间,降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-18.9 mm/10年。（2）空间上,整个流域气温上升,增温幅度较大的地区是流域东北部,有五峰（0.98℃/10年）和长沙（0.7℃/10年）两个极值中心,其他区域增温幅度较小;流域内大部分区域降水量呈递减趋势,递减幅度较大的区域是流域北部和东部,而桑植、吉首、沅江和道县等部分地区降水量呈递增趋势。（3）气温呈上升-下降趋势,1998年为气温突变年份;降水量呈递减-上升-递减趋势,降水量突变点出现在1993和2009年。（4）洞庭湖流域年平均气温存在6年的强显著周期,还有14年和23年尺度的变化周期;年降水量存在3年的强显著周期,6年和16年尺度的变化周期。近32年来,洞庭湖流域总体气候呈现明显暖干化趋势。
The pattern and characteristics of climate changes in the Dongting Lake Basin was analyzed with the methods of the linear regression method,Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelets analysis method based on monthly temperature and precipitation data observed at 30 meteorological stations covered the Dongting Lake Basin from 1982 to 2013. The linear regression method was used to study the variation trends of mean temperature and precipitation on annual scale in rec.ent 32years. Mann Kendall test method was used to test trends and abrupt changes of annual mean temperature and precipitation. The Morlet wavelet analysis method was used to detect the change interval of annual mean temperature and precipitation. The results showed： （1） the climate in this region showed a significant warming trend in recent 32 years,the annual mean temperature var ied between 15.6~C and 17.7 ℃ ,and the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.38 ℃ /10 a ;The annual precipitation varied between 975.2 mm and 1 833.6 mm, and the annual precipitation showed a decrease trend in recent 32 years,and decreased by 18.9 ram/10 a. （2） The ealefactive range was larger in the northern of the Dongting Lake Basin. There are two extreme value centers, one is in Changsha decreased by 0.7℃/10a, and the other is in Wufeng decreased by 0.98℃/10a. It was smaller on other areas. The northern and eastern of the Dongting Lake Basin showed significantly decreasing trend in precipitation. whereas, the Sangzhi, Jishou, Yuanjiang and Daoxian showed obviously increasing trend. （3） An abrupt change from low temperature to high temperature occurred in 1998 and the abrupt change in precipitation occurred in 1993 and 2009. （4） The climate change interval analysis revealed that the annual mean temperature fluctuated significantly with the interval of 6 years, 14 years and 23 years. The annual mean precipitation fluctuated with interval of 3 years, 6 years and 16 years respectively. For this region,the climate was trended to be warmer and d
出处
《衡阳师范学院学报》
2014年第6期109-114,共6页
Journal of Hengyang Normal University
关键词
洞庭湖流域
气温
降水
变化趋势
Dongting Lake Basin
temperature
precipitation
variation characteristic
