摘要
通过历史法梳理出冷战结束后到本文研究的截止时间(2014年8月27日)内,美国在东海、台海和南海问题上对华立场的标志性事件,以专家法赋分进行半定量化处理,以时间序列法进行研究,结论表明:自冷战结束后,美国在"三海"问题上对华采取了一贯性的遏制立场。这一趋势在2009年以后,尤其在2011年后呈加剧态势,本文的工作为预测未来美国在"三海"问题上可能采取的对华立场提供了有科学依据的借鉴。
Through historical method, the authors teased out the U. S. ’s stance on China＇s landmark events in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues since the end of the Cold War. After conducting treatment by expert semi-quantitative method and time-series studies, the authors drew the conclusion showing that：since the end of the Cold War, United States took consistent stance on China in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues con-stantly. This trend, after 2009, especially after 2011, was exacerbated. The work of this paper is to predict the future of the U. S.’s stance toward China in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues, expecting to provide a reference and scientific basis.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期10-14,共5页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"信息化条件下美国‘重返亚洲’战略及我应对策略研究"(编号:13BGJ003)研究成果之一
关键词
时间序列法
“三海”问题
美国对华立场
半定量化研究
time-series method ＂Three-sea＂ issues
U. S.’s stance on China
semi-quantitative study
