摘要
为提高非常规突发事件情景刻画的全面性,在以往偏向事件态势描绘的基础上,将应急活动加入情景刻画中,系统分析突发事件情景的构成要素;基于知识元模型及分层递阶方法,提出情景单元及所含事件、主体应急活动、承灾体及事件环境的层次结构,并建立层次之间的转化关系,实现对突发事件情景的规范化描述。将所建立的事件情景刻画方法应用于某油品管线泄漏事故,得到不同阶段事件情景的规范化表示。应用结果表明,以共性知识元模型为基础,构建情境要素的具体表达形式,能够增加突发事件类型刻画的多样性,具有较强的实用性和广泛应用性。
In order to improve comprehensiveness of scenario characterization,emergency activities were taken into the characterization of unconventional emergency to avoid the shortcomings in previous methods which focused more on characterization of scenario trend. Based on knowledge element model and hierarchical theory,hierarchical structure of scenario units including basic events,emergency activities,hazard bearing bodies and emergency environments were proposed. Conversion relation between different layers was established and standardized description of the accident scenario was achieved. A leak accident of oil pipelines was analyzed and standardized descriptions of different stages were provided. The results indicate that method has strong practicality and wide applicability,and it can increase the characterization diversity of unconventional emergency scenarios.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第10期163-169,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71403293
51104174)
黄岛区重点科技发展计划项目(2014-1-54)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(14CX04024B
14CX02067A)
关键词
情景刻画
应急活动
非常规突发事件
知识元模型
分层递阶
scenario characterization
emergency activities
unconventional emergency
knowledge element model
multi-level hierarchical
