摘要
本文以厦门港1985年—2012年数据为基础,运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数分析等方法,对港口物流与城市经济之间的影响机制做了实证研究。研究结果表明,货物吞吐量、进出口总额、地区生产总值三者之间存在协整关系,港口货物吞吐量对GDP具有持久影响,而GDP仅影响当期港口货物吞吐量,港口货物吞吐量与进出口总额之间存在相互持久的正向影响,建议做好港口建设中长期规划,促进外贸发展,推进港城共荣。
Based on the data of Xiamen Port in 1985-2012, this paper takes the empirical study on the influencing mechanism of port logistics and urban economy by the function analysis of vector auto-regression and impulse response. The results of the study show that there is a co-integration relationship among cargo handling capacity, total export-import volume and gross regional domestic product; the cargo handling capacity of the port has lasting effects on GDP, but GDP only affects the current cargo handling capacity of the port; the cargo handling capacity of the port and total export-import volume have lasting positive effects on each other. The author suggests completing the medium and long term planning of port construction to promote the development of foreign trade and the co-prosperity of port and city.
出处
《价值工程》
2014年第35期17-20,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
2012年福建省教育厅社会科学研究B类项目(编号:JB12582S)
关键词
港口物流
港口城市经济
向量自回归
脉冲响应
port logistics
economy of port cities
vector auto-regression
impulse response
