摘要
关于人口素质普遍的一个观点是:目前我国人口素质总体水平偏低,并且地区差距大。人们对人口素质差距的认识普遍来自于对地区经济差距的感知,形成这种观点的原因在于反映人口素质的部分指标同时也是反映经济发展的指标;因此,地区人口素质的评价结果往往与地区经济发展高度一致。但是,地区人口素质差距真的与经济发展差距完全一样吗?借鉴协方差分析思想,运用偏最小二乘回归,对传统综合评价方法进行了改进,构建了包含外部经济环境效应的综合评价模型,并对我国人口素质进行实证研究。我国地区间外部经济环境效应显著存在,经济环境能影响人口素质的外在测量指标,但剔除外部经济环境效应的综合评价结果显示,地区间人口素质差异明显缩小,实际上,地区人口素质差距并没有我们想象的那么大。
It is well-known that the overall level of population quality in China is not high and the disparity between different regions is large.The way most people feel about the disparity of population quality between different regions is through the perception of economic gap,as some of the indexes that reflect population quality are influenced by economic development.So the evaluation of regional population quality is highly correlated with economic development.But is the disparity of regional population quality exactly the same as the gap of regional economic development? In this article,the authors used covariance analysis and partial least squares regression to improve the traditional comprehensive evaluation technique,and built a comprehensive evaluation model containing the effects of external economic factors.The results showed that economic conditions can significantly influence the external observation indexes of population quality.The disparity of population quality between different regions is not so large while external economic factors we're eliminated.In fact,the disparity of regional population quality is not as much as we thought.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期35-41,共7页
Population and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"提高人口素质对区域经济发展贡献的实证研究"(71173115)
江苏省社会科学基金项目"江苏人口素质间接评价研究"(12ZHD006)
江苏理工学院社科基金"新生代农民工流动行为和迁移意愿的问题研究"(KYY13514)
关键词
人口素质
综合评价
地区差距
population quality
comprehensive evaluation
regional difference
