摘要
蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展。根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径。结果表明:1不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径。2设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径。
The designed floodwater storage frequency and storage pattern are main thresholds for flood management and regional social-economic development in flood retention areas of China＇s river basins. Under the backgrounds of ＂Integrated Flood Management＂ and ＂Sustainable development＂, this paper focused on the optimal developing approaches in China＇s flood retention areas. Based on different designed floodwater storage frequencies in detention areas, 3 development scenarios, as status quo, proportionally wetland restoration and proportionally reservoir-shaping, were first established within 35 years. Meanwhile, multi-objective evaluation index system was built consisting of flood mitigation, social-economic development and ecological benefits. Finally, according to Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） , the optimal approaches for different flood retention areas were identified and discussed. DEA model results indicated that proportionally wetland restoration was the optimal approach for 70% flood retention areas in China and ＂flood period 50＂ of designed frequency for floodwater storage was the boundary of various flood retention areas-if the designed floodwater storage frequency of a flood retention area was lower than ＂flood period 50＂, proportionally wetland restoration was its optimal developing way, while, if higher than ＂flood period 50＂, maintaining its status quo was the optimal way. The research findings could provide valuable suggestions and decision-making support for flood management and sustainable development in flood retention areas.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期888-896,共9页
Advances in Water Science
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001014
200901025)~~
关键词
蓄滞洪区
洪水管理与可持续发展
数据包络分析
设计启用频率
最优途径
flood retention areas
integrated flood management and sustainable development
data envelopment analysis
designed floodwater storage frequency
optimal approaches
