摘要
在国家开发丝绸之路经济带战略的推进下,新疆凭借地缘优势,其投资、消费和出口引致的内外需求产生了大量物流需求,物流供需的互动间接地促进经济增长。利用协整、VECM和基于VECM的Granger因果检验实证分析了新疆投资、消费和出口与物流供给之间的数量关系。结果表明新疆的物流供给、投资、消费和出口之间存在长期均衡关系,投资或消费每增加1%,将增加0.709%或0.257%的物流供给,1%的出口需求将减轻0.063%的物流供给压力。基于VECM的Granger因果检验表明短期和长期内物流供给是投资的原因,投资又是出口的原因,因此物流供给是出口的间接原因。
With the advance of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, the domestic and foreign demand caused by the investment, consumption and export produce a large amount of logistics demand by means of geo-graphical advantages of Xinjiang, the interactive logistics supply and demand indirectly promote eco-nomic growth. This article analyses the quantitative relationship among the logistics supply, investment, consumption and exports by means of employing the co-integration, VECM and Granger causality test based on VECM in Xinjiang, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among these variables, the investment or consumption increased by 1%will increase by 0.709% or 0.257% of logistics supply, 1% export demand will reduce 0.063% of logistics supply pressure. The Granger causality test based on VECM indicates that the logistics supply is the cause of investment, the invest-ment is the reason of export, so logistics supply is the indirect cause of exports in the short term and long term.
出处
《通化师范学院学报》
2014年第11期44-49,共6页
Journal of Tonghua Normal University
基金
国家社科基金项目"丝绸之路经济带框架下中国与俄白哈关税同盟产业链构建研究"(14CGJ019)
新疆普通高校人文社会科学研究基地"中亚与中国西北边疆政治经济研究中心"重点项目"丝绸之路经济带背景下霍尔果斯经济开发区前景与作用研究"(040314B02)
新疆普通高校人文社会科学研究基地新疆宏观经济预警研究基地一般项目"新疆产业生态系统的最优化模型构建"(010613C05)
关键词
丝绸之路经济带
投资
消费
出口
物流供给
新疆
Silk Road economic belt investment consumption export logistics supply Xinjiang
