摘要
海上丝绸之路的建设受到多种因素影响,这些因素涉及领域广泛且关系复杂。为厘清因素之间的层级关系和影响力排序,为决策者有重点地制定海上丝绸之路建设方案提供参考依据,本文从基础条件、政治外交条件、经济条件、安全条件、保障条件等7个方面构建海上丝绸之路建设的影响因素指标体系。采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析得到由表层直接影响因素、中间层间接影响因素和深层根本影响因素组成的3级多层递阶ISM,然后利用层次分析法(AHP)确定表层影响因素的权重排序。结果表明:ISM能有效地建立海上丝绸之路建设的影响因素层级结构,可以直观地反映出因素间的层次关系;AHP法可以识别影响海上丝绸之路建设的关键和重点因素,包括专门的管理组织机构完善程度、跨国港口间通关便利性、集疏运网络完善程度。
The building of maritime silk road is affected by many factors which involves wide area and has complex relationship . In order to clear the hierarchy structure and influence , and provide references for policy - makers to give priority to formulate maritime silk road building programmers .The factors are constructed with elementary conditions , political diplomatic conditions , economic conditions , safety conditions ,and guarantee conditions .By using interpretative structure model , a 3 - layer hierarchy structure is established includ-ing surface direct factors ,middle - layer indirect and deep fundamental factors which are obtained after analyzing the relationship of factors . Then analytic hierarchy process is introduced to determine the relative weights of surface factors .The results show that using interpretative structure model can effectively establish the factors structure which influencing directly factors’ hierarchical relationships .Using analytic hi-erarchy process can identify the key and important factors including specialized maritime silk road management institutions ,facilitation of customs clearance between ports of countries ,the perfection of system of collection and distribution which are the key factors influencing the building of maritime silk road .
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2014年第11期38-43,共6页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"保障我国海上通道安全研究"(项目编号:11JZD049)
