摘要
本文从就业角度分析北京经济与社会发展(主要指公共服务)之间存在的不协调,即在总结北京就业阶段性特征的基础上、利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法,分析就业与经济、就业与人口及公共服务之间可能存在的因果关系,探索形成经济与社会之间不协调的原因。检验结果表明,以基建及房地产等投资带动的经济增长方式促进了消费者服务业及政府服务业等第三产业的就业,并进而带动了人口膨胀,而人口的膨胀是形成公共服务资源不足的主要原因,并得出结论:经济增长及就业的水平不高是不协调的根本原因,转变经济增长方式,特别是提升第三产业发展质量,是解决这个矛盾的关键。
This article attempts to analyze the disharmony between Beijing economic and social development, mainly refers to the public service, from the perspectives of employment. Based on the summary of Beijing employment stage characteristics, it uses granger causality tests to explore the internal cause of the inconsistency between employment and the economy, employment and public services. Test results show that the investment to stimulate economic growth promoted the tertiary industry employment, and population expansion was the main reason for the insufficiency of public service resources. Therefore, transformation of economic growth development mode, to improve the quality of the third industry development, is the key to solve this contradiction.
出处
《北京社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第11期96-105,共10页
Social Sciences of Beijing
关键词
就业结构
格兰杰因果检验
就业弹性
产业结构偏离度
employment structure
Granger causality test
employment elasticity
industrial structure deviation
