摘要
对延伸期干旱、沙尘暴过程低频预报系统的整体框架、子模块构成和功能、预报方法、操作步骤及应用情况进行详细介绍。该系统主要有干旱、沙尘暴过程低频方法预报2个子系统,各子系统包括低频天气图、关键区低频曲线2种预报方法。目前中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所已使用该系统对西北地区东部的干旱过程和沙尘暴过程进行预报,就沙尘暴预报效果来说,2012年预报准确率达到75%,2011年和2013年的预报准确率均达到67%,预报时效达到8-31 d。而对干旱过程的预报效果,2012年预报准确率达80%,2011、2013年分别达75%、67%,预报时效达6-30 d。
This paper introduces the whole framework,structure and function in sub-modules,forecast method,operational procedure and application of the drought and dust storm process extended-range low-frequency method forecast system in detail.The system mainly contains the drought and dust storm process low-frequency method forecast subsystem,and the low-frequency weather map and low-frequency curve in key area methods are all involved with the system.Up to now,the system has been used by Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology to forecast drought and dust storm process in the eastern of Northwest China.The prediction accuracy rate for dust storm process is 75% in 2012,67% in 2011 and 2013,respectively,and the forecast period reaches 8-31 days.For drought process,that is 80% in 2012,75% in 2011 and 67% in 2013,respectively,and the forecast period reaches 6-30 days.
出处
《干旱气象》
2014年第5期851-856,共6页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M55)
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201404)
兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2013-108)共同资助
关键词
延伸期预报
干旱过程
沙尘暴过程
低频天气系统
extended-range forecast
drought process
dust storm process
low-frequency weather system
