摘要
近年中印在跨界河流问题上争议和冲突增多,冲突的根源是两国存在利益分歧,需要理性分析和系统应对。作者首先运用安全理论提出脆弱性与国家实力矩阵和PESTLEM威胁分析模型对中印跨界河流非传统安全威胁识别分析,之后运用安全威胁评估矩阵对威胁进行评估和排序,并借助社会冲突理论提出中印跨界河流冲突的系统应对建议,认为解决中印跨界河流冲突需要模塑以"相互责任主权"为核心价值的指导原则,寻求一种共赢互利的整合式解决方案,在厘清中印双方各自切实利益关切和分歧的基础上,通过沟通与谈判方式逐步夯实流域范围内的经济合作,逐步向全面战略合作延展。应对中印跨界河流冲突需在边界安全、水资源分配、上下游生态环境影响等具体方面做出策略调整,兼顾"绝对主权"与"公平合理利用"的平衡,避免双方在跨界河流上展开资源争夺和无节制开发利用导致"公地悲剧"的发生,重视法律制度、法治思维和协商沟通机制作为当前和未来解决跨界河流冲突的主流路径,积极参与跨界河流联动机制的建立,实现中印非传统安全合作的共赢,为亚洲与世界的和谐发展做出榜样。
In recent years,the disputes on Sino-Indian Transboundary rivers are increasing largely due to their divergence of interests,Thus,it is necessary to conduct rational analyses and systemic responses.Within the tenets of security theories,this paper puts forward the Vulnerability and State Actor's Power Matrix of non-traditional security studies and PESTLEM Threat Analysis Model to identify Sino-Indian transboundary river security.Security Evaluation Matrix is also applied to assess the threats,and finally substantial suggestions are made for Sino-Indian transboundary river conflict by dint of the social conflict studies and security theories.The paper concludes that in the future,China and India needs an integrated solution at the strategic level to solve transboundary river conflicts.Both sides should identify their tangible benefits and disputes.With the cooperation of transboundary river as a turning point,China and India should progressively explore the economic cooperation in this basin through dialogues and negotiations.Both countries should actively set up a high securi-
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期52-70,156,共19页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国非传统安全威胁识别
评估及应对"(批准号:12&ZD099)的成果之一
