摘要
人民币汇率1是重要的宏观经济价格指标。从购买力平价、利率平价、跨国长期投资收益以及资本流动等理论和实务的角度着重分析影响人民币汇率变动的因素,并根据今年2季度以来上述几方面发生的变化对人民币汇率的走势作了简单预测。研究发现2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,影响人民币汇率的因素主要是中美两国的价格差异、利率差异和经济增长率差异,但之间的相关关系却同传统的购买力平价和利率平价理论相反。通过构建人民币汇率指数并对人民币/美元汇率进行跟踪和预测,认为无论是短期还是长期,人民币都将面临贬值压力。
RMB exchange rate is one of important macroeconomic indicators. This paper analyzes fac-tors affecting RMB exchange rate and do forecast for median-term and short term RMB exchange rate trend based on them. The author find that since RMB exchange rate reform on July, 2005, main factors affecting RMB exchange rate include China and USA CPI index difference, interest rate spread between China and USA, and real GDP growth rate difference. The author build RMB exchange rate Index to monitor and forecast CNY/USD spot exchange rate. Conclusion is that whether in short or in long term, RMB will face devaluation pressure.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2014年第9期38-41,共4页
Financial Theory and Practice
关键词
人民币汇率
套利交易
绝对购买力平价
利率平价
RMB exchange rate
carry trade
absolute purchasing power parity
interest rate parity
