摘要
国际贸易是拉动我国经济增长的源泉之一,在拉动经济增长的同时,其是否对我国就业有促进作用成为焦点,尤其是对于附加值高、环境污染少的服务业更是如此。我国服务业的现实情况是,进口长期超过出口,因此,研究服务业进口与就业具有理论和现实价值。本文以我国服务业为研究对象,运用进口竞争度指标分析得出服务进口竞争不断加剧,定性分析得出我国服务业进口与就业都呈现显著增加态势。同时,运用就业进口弹性分析得出我国服务业进口与就业呈正向关系;通过协整检验发现,变量间存在长期均衡关系;通过格兰杰因果检验,发现服务进口竞争是服务就业的单向格兰杰因果关系;通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,发现短期内服务进口竞争对就业具有正效应且其贡献率仅次于服务就业自身,而长期内其效应为负但其贡献率较小。同时发现,长期内全社会固定资产投资对就业具有正效应且其贡献仅次于服务就业自身。根据本文分析可知,我国服务业进口对就业具有正向促进作用,且该作用主要集中在短期,而长期内则不利于就业,但其贡献较小可以忽略,因此,解决就业问题,短期内可以通过服务业进口而实现,而长期内则可以通过增加我国社会基础设施投资带动经济的同时促进就业。
International trade is a source of stimulating economic growth in China, when it plays its role of stimulating economic growth whether international trade plays a role in promoting employment in China has become the focus study, especially for the service industry with high value-added and less environmental pollution, whether the trade in services will promote employment is the focus attention of each country in the world, and also becomes a focus research for scholars, the reality situation of services in China is that imports in services exceeds its exports in a long term, so whether the export-import in services in China is to promote employment, especially for the rela- tionship between import and employment, is worth deeply research, in a word, there have theoretical and practical value in studying the relationship between import and employment in services. Take China＇s service industry as re- search object, the author gets to conclusion that import competition in services is more and more increasing intensify based on the import competition index, then the author takes qualitative analysis to study import of China＇s service industry and its employment, though analyzing them the author shows that they both have a significant increase situ- ation, at the same time the author also gets to conclusion that they have positive relationship between import in serv- ices and employment in services based on employment import elasticity. Through the cointegration test, the author draws a conclusion that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among all selected variables; at the same time, though residual correlation matrix analysis by VAR model, the author draws a conclusion that there exist the mutual influence relationships in same period and the lag situation between all selected variables. Through the granger cau- sality test, the author draws a conclusion that service import competition is the one way granger causality of employ- ment in services;At the same time, the author gets to conclusion that the
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第9期167-174,共8页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"我国战略性新兴产业政府引导基金及运行机制问题研究"(12BJY151)
国家社会科学基金西部项目"加快转变经济发展方式与内陆开放模式创新研究"(12XJL011)
对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金"进口贸易与就业:服务业的实证研究"(201412)
关键词
服务业
进口竞争
就业进口弹性
因果检验
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
service industry
import competition
employment import elasticity
causality test
impulse re- sponse function
variance decomposition
